Macro Development Prediction

Strategy: Prediction of macroeconomic movements and counter-movements based on value research, political developments and varying central bank strategies. Thereby I will generally try to take positions that correlate negatively. I.e. I will go short in one position that is overvalued in my opinion and long in a negatively correlated position that is undervalued in my opinion. E.g. as of 13.02.17, Short S&P, Long Commerzbank. Products: Commodities, Indeces on markets, regions, sectors and respective derivatives. Decision making: Analysis of future impacts of political and economic developments on specific markets and products. Anticipated holding periods: 3-18 months The overall composition of the portfolio is aimed to be around 60-80% based on expected macro economic developments and 20-40% based on single observations of overreaction of the market to special Events. This will mostly include stocks and etfs, but also small short positions either to hedge or due to observed positive overreactions. Sources of information: global news, central bank announcements, government announcements, announcements of organizations such as the OPEC