Cyclical Compounders

  • +12,8 %
    seit 31.05.2019
  • -
    1 Jahr
  • -
    Ø-Performance pro Jahr
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The following text represents my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice:

Portfolio strategy: Long only, equity focus, cyclical businesses in secular growth-trends, special situations, low asset turnover.

Investments in cyclical businesses are under-appreciated in the current financial landscape. Conservative portfolio-managers prefer the percieved safety of low-beta assets, dividend-growth-stocks, defensives and bonds in general - while the more risk-embracing growth and momentum driven investors mainly flock to the large-cap "glamour" stocks (both active and passive). This however, has led to a relative dearth of capital being allocated to cyclical companies (like industrials, energy or commodity-related) which in turn offers opportunities for the patient, enterprising stock picker.

This portfolio aims at identifying under-appreciated equities predominantly in cyclical or semi-cyclical industries. Obscured by short-term macro- and micro-economically driven fluctuations to their earnings (and sometimes balance sheet) many of these companies fly under the radar of the investing public, yet may turn out to be great compounders for patient investors over the long run, especially when combined with adapted momentum indicators.

We employ a semi-quantitative multi-factorial long equity selection process based on a modified Joel Greenblatt strategy. Finding well-run compounders and special situation assets (merger-securities, spin-offs, etc.) at reasonable entry levels in cyclical industries. Circle of competence: Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials, Commodities & Energy. Opportunistical addition of further sectors possible. Minimal rebalancing and asset turnover. mehr anzeigen
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Mitglied seit 31.05.2019


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Kommentare im wikifolio

Allgemeiner Kommentar

Abbvie trading at around 87$ is at around our estimated fair value considering Humira patent expiry and balance sheet risk due to the Allergan takeover. Still, with low interest rates all around the globe this high yielding stock may attract even more buyers in the short run. We will continue to hold, but may consider taking profits, if it continues on its upward trajectory. Good company with significant medium-term risks, so either holding or taking profits is fine from a risk-adjusted standpoint.

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Allgemeiner Kommentar

Recieved 90,75€ in quarterly dividends from Shell. Keep it coming Ben!

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Allgemeiner Kommentar

Good short-term performance for the portfolio. However, market momentum and breadth seems to indicate short-term headwinds. It will be interesting to see, wether cyclicals remain underappreciated by Mr. Market (higher drawdown of cyclical stocks during market downturn) or if in fact a secular momentum-shift is underway (cyclicals falling less than global markets). Both situations could lead to interesting opportunities.

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Kommentar zu AVX CORP.

AVX earnings came in today and are a bit weaker than expected. Both top- and bottom-line suffering from global demand slowdown and bloated inventory channels. But this does not change our long-term view of the industry and AVX in particular. Interstingly, AVX actually increased shareholder equity in this bad quarter.

After todays sell-off AVX trades at around 1 times book with 1/4 of market cap in cash on hand. ROE (ttm) and ROtC (ttm) are 11% and 29% respectively. These measures will decline in the coming quarters, but are probably (close to) cycle-trough conditions. So you get a lot of company for your dollars worth and industry conditions are unlikely to deteriorate furher (in our view) - which still makes AVX a potentially asymmetric risk/reward-situation. We will continue to hold shares in AVX as long as the investment-thesis is unaffected.

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