ViCi - Brasilien Balanced

Lula in Revision Strafmaß verschärft, darf Land nicht verlassen, möchte aber in Oktober kandidieren .... nun das oberste Gericht?! mehr anzeigen

neues All Time High Symbol WF00BRABAL Erstellungsdatum 14.12.2014 Top-wikifolio-Rangliste Punkte 714 Indexstand 154,69 High Watermark 151,82 Performance seit Beginn +54,69% Performance seit Emission +53,33% Performance seit Jahresbeginn +8,85% mehr anzeigen

We maintain OW recommendations in Brazil across local rates, FX and sovereign credit despite the cross currents of risks around this year’s elections as well as the pension reforms. Positive fundamental adjustments underlie Brazil’s greater ability to withstand external and political shocks, and J.P. Morgan recently revised 2018 growth higher to 3.0% from 2.8% previously. Our bullish recommendations already incorporate our base case view that the social security reforms would not be approved before the October elections. Admittedly, the wild card remains the elections, with little clarity on potential outcomes and implications on the policy framework. The next event to watch is Lula’s appeal on January 24. For local rates, Brazil offers the highest real yields across GBI-EM countries, and foreign participation looks light following 2 years of outflows from LTN bonds. Receive DI Jan21 and stay OW bonds in the GBI-EM Model Portfolio. The BRL outlook seems supportive, as external accounts, strong growth and corporate hedging near term should keep the real anchored. We stay OW BRL in our GBI-EM Model Portfolio. For sovereign credit, our OW reflects a recovery trade which offsets fiscal concerns and political risks, with investors having already reduced exposures. The resilience post-S&P downgrade and subsequent placement of the $1.5bn bond issue one week later suggest fiscal challenges are incorporated in current risk premium. mehr anzeigen

neues all time high Indexstand 147,53; Brasilien ist eben eine dollarisierte Ölindustrie (zum Teil) mehr anzeigen