Cycles with Surprise

Cycles dominating the life-span of a firm, a branch, national economies and even the world economy are the starting point of decision making. It is assumed that such cycles exist and that it is being possible to detect them by statistical analysis. Additional data, i.e. information from firms as well as data about branches and the economy shall be evaluated to underpin the decision. To sell part or even all positions in a downturn is possible. The investment universe shall consist of stocks and ETFs.