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Johann Meckenstock

JMEC
Last login 2026-10-13
Member since 2020-07-17

Top wikifolio
Concentrated Growth and Quality

JMEC
+99.0 %

since Beginning

-

1 Year
TOP WIKIFOLIO TRADE
- Buy 2026-09-17 at 11:45 am
  
  AIXTRON SE NA O.N.
  
  DE000A0WMPJ6
  
  Price (EUR) 34.560 1.8%
Last Activity

Concentrated Growth and Quality

Summer Earnings Season Recap AMD · Aixtron · Lumentum · Marvell The season in one sentence. For AI infrastructure companies, the constraint is supply, not demand. All four portfolio companies reported between late July and late August. All four said customers want more than they can currently ship, and none of them lowered guidance. AMD, Lumentum and Marvell raised their outlooks; Aixtron confirmed its full-year guide. AMD: the second source becomes a first choice Core thesis: AMD has a strong server CPU franchise that keeps taking share, especially with Agentic AI as a huge driver. Its AI accelerator business is moving from single chips to rack-scale systems with Helios. Takeaway from Q2: Revenue was a record $11.5B, up 50%. Data Center more than doubled to $6.7B. Q3 is guided to about $13.0B. Server CPU revenue is now expected to grow more than 80% in the second half of 2026. Data Center revenue is expected to more than double again in 2027. Helios is shipping. Anthropic (up to 2 GW) and Microsoft joined OpenAI and Meta as customers. Lisa Su said AMD is "tracking materially ahead" of its long-term model and that EPS will "significantly exceed" the $20 target. Aixtron: the tools that make the lasers Core thesis: Every optical link in an AI data center starts with an indium-phosphide laser. Those lasers are grown on MOCVD reactors, and Aixtron's G10-AsP is becoming the industry-standard reactor for them. Takeaway from Q2: Revenue was only €115M, but orders and backlog were the real news. Order intake rose 81% to €215M, and the backlog rose 61% to €457M. Roughly 15 laser makers account for about 80% of orders. FY2026 guidance (€560M ± €30M) was confirmed, not raised. CEO Felix Grawert explained why: "It's a ramp rate. It's not a capacity." Customer prepayments pushed first-half free cash flow to €162M. The power electronics business (GaN and SiC) remains quiet, so the thesis currently rests on optoelectronics alone. Lumentum: sold out at every layer Core thesis: Lumentum is a leading supplier of the lasers, transceivers and optical circuit switches that move data between AI chips. Demand in these products runs far ahead of supply. Takeaway from fiscal Q4: Revenue crossed $1.0B, up 109%. Gross margin reached 50%. Management had originally expected that level only at twice the current revenue. Q1 guidance of about $1.25B is more than 130% above the prior year. It reaches the company's target model more than a quarter early. The shortfall against high-power laser demand is widening. The CEO said: "We are way behind our shipments." This is the strongest momentum in the portfolio, and the valuation already assumes it continues. Marvell: custom silicon plus the interconnect around it Core thesis: Marvell is the number-two designer of custom AI chips. It is also a leader in the optical and electrical interconnect that ties clusters together. Takeaway from fiscal Q2: Revenue was a record $2.74B, up 37%. Data center revenue grew 46%, and that growth is accelerating. FY2027 guidance was raised to about $12B, and FY2028 to about $18B. That is roughly 50% growth on a larger base. Gross margin is drifting lower as custom chips become a larger share of sales. Next catalyst: the Investor Day on 6 October, where management will size the FY2029 custom opportunity. Summary: green lights across the board. The Management, Business Model, Growth and Forecast factors in my scoring framework are green for AMD, Aixtron, Lumentum and Marvell. I will report on any changes. The four companies sit at different layers of the same build-out: compute, custom silicon, optics and the tools behind the optics. Each of them confirmed this summer that demand visibility now extends well into 2027. The main risks are valuation and execution on supply, not demand. Why I write this. I research these companies in depth because I own them. I am invested in this Wikifolio certificate and also in my private account in all four companies, so I share both the upside and the risk with you. I am NOT motivated by the "performance fee", which amounts to a few Euros even if things turn out great. This letter is my personal opinion and not investment advice and was created using AI.
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I have a PhD in Engineering and Management, that means a natural curiosity for all things technical and financial. My investment experience reaches back more than 25 years. I have seen my fair share of crises and bubbles. This informs my strong emphasis on risk analysis in my investment process. I think my biggest strength is the mid-term forecast (12-36 months). Most investors are too focused on quarter by quarter shortermism. They often miss the big and lucrative investment trends. show more

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Risk class 2: 3 or more years

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