Been quasi bearish for a while now expecting a cycle of troughs and recovery, the china slowdown is a trigger for me to be much more conviction short.mehr anzeigen
Letzte Ereignisse im wikifolioKommentar 07.02.2019 um 19:28
Wertpapierkauf 15.05.2019 um 09:00DE000A2BDEB6Kurs EUR 40,866 <0,1 %
Wertpapierverkauf 07.05.2019 um 08:23NL0011375019Kurs EUR 0,130 0,7 %
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Kommentare im wikifolio
I was short banks unfortunately this product has been discontinued during a huge market move in my favoiur and a contemptible mark used in valuing this position. From what I can see the banks have not massively rallied this morning as the mark indicates but instead been destroyed. Wikifolio is not a credible partner as it seems to recognise losses in your portfolio but never substantial gains. This has happened multiple times now.mehr anzeigen
Tata motors purchase response to relentlessly pessimistic CEO of Jaguar Land Rover. In my view the product and pricing are excellent but the marketing abysmal particularly in respect to Jaguar a brand that I see as very strong, Personally I recently replaced an Audi and a Volvo with Jaguars on price grounds and now would not swap at equivalent pricing. As long as current CEO remains I will keep buying as I think his singular lack of optimism is artificially depressing price.
On the political side no deal Brexit is almost a certainty to my mind with customs union plans by EU and British PrimeMinister having no support from the public and almost impossible to pass through parliament with a large subset of Brexit supporting MPs. My likely scenario is a no deal chaotic Brexit followed by a series of individual emergency deals on transit and access leading to a free trade agreement, Controversially I expect economic damage after first months disruption to predominately fall on the EU with ljmited flexibility to react due to the EU structure and heavy complacency from both sides. I expect a EU recession now within the year.mehr anzeigen
The large drawdown a month or so ago was due to the discontinuation of several 3* leverage ETF and liquidation at overnight bid price. Positions were short oil, 2 days before one of the largest corrections of recent times, short tech (Tesla, facebook etc) I am constantly trying to short tech sector versus standout stocks like amazon with some doubts over future social media business model and zombie companies in terms of cashburn, Shorts broader markets in terms of trade war, increasing interest yields.
After a period of being disheartened and a vow for more due diligence on products I have identified Euro bank sector as best opportunity. I will diversify away when I see good cause. 3 reasons-
1. Brexit. I have doubts on their abilities to raise funds cut off from the city. I expect no deal.
2. Solvency. This is doubtful especially with risks of a downward market correction and macro slower growth, I do not place any faith in ECB tests that themselves show large shortfalls.
3. Soverign Yields. I doubt the ECB will be able to cap spreads for much longer, leading to large losses in reserve holdings especially for peripheral Euro countries.