Hottest Stocks in CW 35/25

Really positive news has been rare lately at Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk. The previously hyped share price has also performed poorly. In recent weeks, however, the tide has turned somewhat. Since hitting a low of around 290 Danish kroner (DKK), the share price has recovered by 26 percent. Last week, it rose by just under 11 percent. This development was also supported by various reports. For example, it was reported that Novo Nordisk won 44 patent lawsuits in the US against clinics and pharmacies that sell imitations of its important weight-loss drugs. In addition, several FDA approvals were granted for the company's drugs.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

wikifolio traders are already big fans of the Danish company and have once again stepped up their purchases. The trading sentiment for Novo Nordisk shows a clear surplus of purchases. Werner Kraus added the stock to his wikifolio Mein Basisinvestment last Tuesday. The trader is aiming for sustainable value growth with as little price volatility as possible and has been able to increase the value of his portfolio by an average of 12.5 percent per year since fall 2016. This results in a total performance of 186 percent, with a maximum drawdown of 33 percent. When selecting companies, the trader pays particular attention to solid and sustainable growth prospects, a good dividend yield, the highest possible private/family share among shareholders, and solid and sustainable business figures.

In his wikifolio FN Invest Dividende, Frank Naujoks looks for stocks with attractive dividend yields, whereby the companies should also show promising business development. The trader acquired Novo Nordisk at the end of July, predicting a long-term recovery “if Novo Nordisk can once again convince with positive news and confidence in the company slowly rises again.” He feels vindicated in this assessment following the recent price gains and expects the stock to recover further to the level where the last massive crash began at the end of July. The wikifolio, which is at a record high, suffered a slump of over 50 percent in 2020, but after a total of 9 ½ years, it still has a current value increase of 120 percent (8.6 percent p.a.).

The publication of the half-year figures caused CTS Eventim's share price to plummet by double digits. The bottom line last week was a loss of almost 17 percent. Among other things, this was due to lower revenues from the company's own events and high costs for integrating recently acquired companies, which caused the surplus in the second quarter to plummet by almost a quarter. Adjusted for special items, operating profit fell by around 9 percent to 100.2 million euros. Both figures were below analysts' estimates.

The management board of the European market leader in ticketing and event management confirmed its target of moderate growth in revenue and adjusted operating profit for the current year, but at the same time pointed to the challenging macroeconomic environment. As a result, major leaps are unlikely. Many analysts have revised their estimates and adjusted their price targets. These targets are still well above the current share price, averaging around €115. Consequently, the majority of research firms continue to recommend buying the stock.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

The majority of wikifolio traders viewed the price losses as a welcome opportunity to buy. With comparatively strong trading volumes, the trading sentiment shows a clear buying surplus of 90 percent based on the 7-day balance sheet. Torsten Maus, for example, made several purchases on Thursday and Friday, making CTS Eventim shares the largest position in his highly successful wikifolio TREND-SURFER. The trader pursues a “market phase-optimized trend-following approach,” in which the classic trend-following approach according to Darvas is supplemented by “intelligent market phase optimization.” This means that the investment ratio is adjusted depending on the market phase. Currently, the portfolio is almost fully invested with 19 stocks. The trader uses a special stock scanner to select the securities in the portfolio. Since its launch at the beginning of 2019, this approach has achieved a performance of 92 percent. This corresponds to an average annual increase in value of a good 10 percent. So far this year, it has achieved a gain of over 21 percent. The risk/return ratios of the wikifolio, which is trading just below its all-time high, are also impressive, thanks in part to a maximum loss of less than 15 percent.

The shares of sporting goods manufacturer Puma have recovered somewhat in recent days. However, the bottom line is that the share price performance has been nothing but disappointing. The weekly gain of around eight percent was not even close to enough to offset the losses suffered since the turn of the year. As a result, the share price is still down 56 percent for the year to date. The decline in the share price was accompanied by weak company figures and reduced outlooks. At the end of July, the new management board warned of declining sales and a loss for the year as a whole and announced a “change of course” in the group's strategy. A more comprehensive roadmap is to be drawn up by the end of October. 2026 has already been dubbed a “transition year,” meaning that rapid improvements in earnings are not to be expected. Puma is also suffering from US government tariffs, which are expected to reduce gross profit by around €80 million in 2025 despite planned price increases in the US. Most of the Puma products sold there are manufactured in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Indonesia.

Analysts have continued to revise the fair value of the share downward over the past few months. While the consensus price target was still around €120 two and a half years ago, banks currently only expect the share to reach an average of €22. However, because the share has fallen even further and is now trading around 20 percent below this level, more than half of analysts consider it to be at least a good “hold” position. The strategists at private bank Berenberg are very optimistic. They have set a price target of €40 and are confident that the new management has the necessary skills to initiate a turnaround through improved marketing measures, the right selection of distribution partners, and the optimization of cash flow.

The traders on wikifolio.com are not quite so sure, or they simply do not want to invest the time often required for such a turnaround. Consequently, the recent price recovery also led to some sales. Trader Orkan Kuyas, for example, pulled the ripcord, ending his trade in Puma with a loss of around 12 percent. Kuyas works with several statistical trading systems at the wikifolio Anlegerliebling, the combination of which is intended to provide broad diversification and above-average market returns with low risk. In the first five years after its launch at the end of 2019, this was achieved very impressively. This spring, however, there was a major drawdown of around 26 percent, which means that the portfolio is still down around 10 percent since the beginning of the year. Overall, the performance is still positive at 56 percent or 8.1 percent p.a.

The success story of Palantir shares is truly impressive. From prices around six US dollars, they have risen to a peak of 190 US dollars since the end of 2022. And this despite regular warnings that the valuation was supposedly far too high. The share price was driven by strong company figures, which Palantir owes in part to its unique market position. And, of course, the boom in artificial intelligence. Last week, however, the share price suffered somewhat heavier losses, ending the week down 10.3 percent. Shortseller Citron Research may have been partly responsible for this, as it estimated the fair value at only $40 in a study. The general weakness of US tech stocks (at least until Powell's speech on Friday) and concerns about a possible AI bubble also weighed on the share price.

The average price target for Palantir is currently around $120. In contrast, the share price is still $159, which indicates further correction potential. However, this has been the case very often in recent months, and the share price has continued to rise. Whether this will be the case again now is, of course, open to question. wikifolio traders are somewhat pessimistic in this regard, as the current trading sentiment shows. Sales of the US stock have predominated over the past seven days.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

David Hauck, for example, was able to realize a whopping 938 percent profit on Palantir in his wikifolio Calvet Research Bewertung&Trends. However, the trader has only sold a small fraction of his position, which currently ranks among the top positions in the model portfolio with a weighting of around 10 percent. Hauck seems to take a completely different view of the stock's valuation. After all, he specifically invests in stocks whose potential in terms of substance and debt appears promising in relation to earnings strength and growth prospects. He also prefers “trend stocks” in order to be involved in forward-looking innovations, trends, and megatrends as early as possible and to be able to achieve above-average returns. He has already succeeded in doing so with Palantir, and the balance sheet of the record-high wikifolio is also impressive. Since January 2013, it has generated a performance of 367 percent.

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