Hottest Stocks in CW 22/25

The share price of Sibanye Stillwater, South Africa's leading producer of gold and precious metals, rose by over 27% last week. Since the correction low at the beginning of April, the share price has now almost doubled. Strong quarterly figures and, above all, the significant rise in the price of gold have boosted the share. Last week, there was a brief period of unrest when it was announced that almost 300 miners were trapped underground in a mining accident at a shaft of the Kloof gold mine operated by Sibanye Stillwater near Johannesburg. A short time later, however, the company announced that all employees had returned safely to the surface. This did not put a lasting stop to the soaring share price.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

The wikifolio traders are following the positive trend of recent weeks and are making bold investments in Sibanye Stillwater. Arnd-Rüdiger Schwarz seems to be particularly keen on the share, as he recently bought it for several of his model portfolios. The stock has also been traded several times in the wikifolio Trading-Ideen Long und Short. A good three months after the end of the most recent trade, the stock was re-entered in the middle of last week at a price of EUR 5.05. He then sold a small part of the position he had built up again on Friday at EUR 5.40 with a profit of around seven percent. Nevertheless, with a weighting of almost nine percent, the share is currently the second largest of a total of eight holdings in the portfolio.

The trader, who acts according to the motto “The market is always right”, wants to achieve a positive return regardless of the performance of the stock markets. To achieve this, he goes long in some markets and short in others at the same time. However, he is currently only active on the long side. Since the start of fall 2021, he has achieved an annual average gain of 52% or 11.5%. After reaching a record high just under a year ago, there was a correction, but since the “tariff crash” low there has recently been a clear upward trend.

There is still a great deal of skepticism about electric cars in Germany. This is also confirmed by specialists from the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI) in a recent study. At the same time, however, they dispel many myths and explain them as incomprehensible from a scientific perspective. More than 70 studies and other scientific sources were evaluated in order to form a well-founded opinion on these topics. The result was that electric cars are clearly more environmentally friendly and in most cases also more economical in the long term than comparable combustion engines. And this trend will become even stronger in the coming years, among other things due to falling prices, even better and cheaper batteries and the possibility of bidirectional charging of electric cars.

In China, consumers have been aware of the advantages of purely electronically powered vehicles for some time. The market is booming here. This is also reflected in the latest quarterly figures from Xpeng, a Chinese electric car manufacturer and partner of Volkswagen. Last week, the company reported Q1 sales that exceeded market expectations and forecasted an increase in sales of up to 258% to between 102,000 and 108,000 vehicles for the current quarter. A new historic high of 94,000 vehicles (+331%) was already achieved in the first quarter of 2025. The company is also making progress in terms of profitability. Although losses were still posted in the past quarter, they were significantly below the previous year and also below analysts' estimates. The Management Board justified this with considerable improvements in cost reduction and pointed out that the gross margin for vehicles had now risen for seven consecutive quarters. The share price initially rose significantly as a result, but then had to give up almost all of its gains. The bottom line is therefore a weekly loss of five percent. However, the share price has still risen by almost 70 percent since the beginning of the year.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

Some wikifolio traders have taken the latest news as an opportunity to enter the stock. A look at the trading sentiment shows a clear buyer overhang for Xpeng. Sebastian Kuhnert added the stock to his wikifolio Die Zukunft des Internets on Thursday. For more than 13 years, the trader has been investing in shares of companies that will have a far-reaching impact on our lives as the internet boom continues. Since then, he has been able to increase the value of the highly volatile portfolio by 800% (18% p.a.) despite an interim drawdown of 75%. The average return over the past three years is 66%, although the share price has fallen by 15% since the beginning of the year and the annual balance sheet is also slightly negative.

Bayer shares are once again working on a major bottoming out. The level of around EUR 18.50 has proved to be a potential springboard several times in recent months. This area was also successfully tested during the “tariff crash” in April. The share price subsequently rose to EUR 27 before the weak quarterly figures triggered profit-taking. However, the price setback has not yet resulted in a sustained downward movement, partly because the company received marketing authorization in China last week for its important eye drug Eylea for the treatment of wet, age-related macular degeneration. The European Medicines Agency also approved the extension of the intervals between injections of this drug in the fight against blindness, which experts believe could give the company an advantage over its competitor Vabysmo from Roche.

However, the Rhinelanders are still focusing in particular on how to deal with the billion-euro lawsuits against the glyphosate weedkiller. According to media reports, the Executive Board now wants to end the legal disputes by reaching a settlement in a court in the state of Missouri. In this context, a possible insolvency of Monsanto is also said to have been discussed as a means to an end. However, it remains to be seen whether this will finally put the issue to bed. The analysts are not yet euphoric either. Their average target price is EUR 27, which is ten percent higher than the current share price, but at the beginning of 2023, a fair value of over EUR 75 was still being traded. The banks have therefore followed the share price downwards.

Bayer shares nevertheless rose by seven percent last week. Some traders are likely to have used this to take profits. Philipp Traub, for example, recently sold half of the Bayer shares in the wikifolio Dividenden-Adler that he had acquired just a few weeks ago in two tranches. The trader made profits of 10 and 12 percent respectively. The trader aims to achieve “as constant an increase in value as possible” in the model portfolio and pays attention to technical indicators such as moving averages or relative strength in a short to medium-term trading approach. In the first three years since the start in April 2022, this strategy has enabled him to achieve an average annual increase in value of 28% or a good 8%, with a manageable maximum loss of around 13%. Since the beginning of the year, the wikifolio is up 15 percent and at a record high.

Friday was the day again. US President Donald Trump brought out the next tariff hammer, causing at least temporary uncertainty on the stock markets. In addition to the 50% tariffs for the EU, which have since been postponed again, smartphone manufacturers were also hit. The US government plans to impose import duties of 25% on all iPhones etc. that are not manufactured in the US at the end of June. The US company Apple wants to produce more of its devices in India in the future and instead withdraw somewhat from China. Of course, Trump doesn't like this at all because he would like to have the factories in the USA. One of the many unanswered questions in connection with this demand is whether the necessary personnel can be found at all. In any case, industry experts are predicting a significant increase in the price of smartphones if production were to take place exclusively in the US.

Because Apple is repeatedly the focus of customs policy, its shares have also performed comparatively poorly this year. After a weekly drop of 8.8 percent, the share price has fallen by 22 percent in euro terms since the beginning of January. Most analysts consider this discount to be exaggerated and recommend buying the share at the current level. Among expert opinions, the fair value is also set at a good 230 dollars, which would mean a premium of 18% compared to the current price. At the end of March, however, Apple was still thought to be worth 250 dollars. Trump has therefore successfully put the brakes on the euphoria. The range of target price forecasts is currently between 141 dollars and 308 dollars.

Apple is still very popular with wikifolio traders, but in the current environment there are also repeated sales. Felix Hagmann, for example, sold all the shares in his wikifolio IT Leader last Thursday. However, the reason for this was not so much the threat of tariffs, but rather Alphabet's convincing presentation at the recent Google I/O event. According to the IT expert, it became clear that Alphabet is “a power in the field of artificial intelligence” compared to Apple. The many years of basic research in this area are now “finding their way from lighthouse projects into marketable consumer products”. In his opinion, this in turn should “significantly increase the attractiveness of Android smartphones, for example, compared to Apple”. As a long-time iPhone customer, Hagmann himself therefore pulled the ripcord on the share and took an 83% profit. With a maximum drawdown of around 39%, the overall portfolio achieved a total performance of 163% (9.9% p.a.) after a good ten years.

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