Hottest Stocks in CW 31/25

Biotech shares are in many cases a grab bag. You can get rich with them overnight or lose a lot of money very quickly. This often depends on a single piece of news, which always involves progress, study results or even the approval of special active ingredients. This time, shareholders in the French biotech specialist Abivax were able to rejoice. In the middle of the week, the company reported positive results for its drug for the treatment of the chronic bowel disease ulcerative colitis. The drug had reached the primary endpoint of clinical remission in two global phase 3 trials. If the 44-week maintenance study is also successful, the Management Board intends to submit applications for approval in the USA and the EU in the second half of 2026.

Die Aktie schoss daraufhin explosionsartig in die Höhe, was das Unternehmen umgehend dazu nutzte, sich über eine Kapitalmaßnahme frisches Geld zu besorgen. Auch das lief besser als geplant. Die Aktie wurde kurzzeitig vom Handel ausgesetzt, unter dem Strich stand dann aber ein Wochenplus von 557 Prozent. Sogar bis zu knapp 700 Prozent Gewinn konnte Holger Schäfer bei der Aktie eintüten, die in seinem wikifolio Sternchen und Stars zuvor extrem hoch gewichtet war. Folgerichtig ist der Kurs des im Frühjahr 2022 eröffneten Musterdepots in wenigen Tagen von rund 70 Euro auf aktuell 197 Euro gestiegen. Abivax ist auch jetzt mit aktuell 17 Prozent Depotanteil immer noch die Top-Holding in dem Portfolio.

As a result, the share price skyrocketed, which the company immediately used to raise fresh money via a capital measure. This also went better than planned. The share was briefly suspended from trading, but the bottom line was a weekly increase of 557%. Holger Schäfer was even able to bag gains of up to almost 700% on the share, which was previously extremely highly weighted in his wikifolio Sternchen und Stars. As a result, the price of the model portfolio opened in spring 2022 has risen from around EUR 70 to currently EUR 197 in just a few days. Abivax is still the top holding in the portfolio with a current share of 17%.

Christian Scheid only entered his wikifolio Special Situations long/short after the share price rose significantly. His assessment: “A major license deal or takeover is only a matter of time.” As the second-largest stock in the portfolio, Abivax has a weighting of around five percent.

The Swedish defense company Saab is a world leader in the development, manufacture and marketing of defense and security systems and equipment for the military, aerospace and civilian sectors. Last week, the Group received an order for mobile air defense systems from the Czech Republic worth the equivalent of 1.8 billion Swedish kronor (SEK). The order comprises Saab's mobile fire control units based on the RBS 70 NG short-range missile system and Bolide missiles. The share is nevertheless under slight pressure, partly due to the recently published quarterly figures and partly due to reports that business with the Thai government could be jeopardized.

Saab clearly exceeded expectations in the second quarter in terms of order intake, sales and operating profit. The growth was mainly driven by the Dynamics division, which recorded an unusually high number of deliveries in the quarter. Turnover rose by 30.4%, the EBITDA margin climbed from 12.9% to 14.3% and the operating result increased by almost 49% (margin from 8.8% to 10.0%). A one-off effect of 105 million crowns from the minority portfolio also had a positive impact.

Although the annual forecast for organic sales growth was subsequently raised from 12 to 16 percent to 16 to 20 percent, the majority of analysts remain pessimistic. Although the average price target has risen following the figures, it is still well below the current share price at around SEK 453 according to aktien.guide. Nevertheless, some wikifolio traders are buying the stock. For example, Martin Kraus for his wikifolio MAK Dynamic Growth Stocks. "Entry into SAAB and thus back in the defense sector. I am betting on a post earnings drift here. The story is still right in the sector and especially with Saab. There could be the ‘next leg up’ in the chart here," the trader wrote in explanation. Due to his work in the IT sector, he normally likes to focus on technology companies because he believes he can assess their market opportunities well and would like to use this assessment for an opportunity-oriented portfolio. Since April 2019, he has increased the value of the portfolio by 121% (13.4% p.a.).

Salzgitter's share price has seen wild ups and downs this month. Initially, the SDAX share price rose by 45% within just three days. The main reason for this was probably the announcement of the approval of a material from the subsidiary Ilsenburger Grobblech for a special safety steel that could be used in military technology. This fueled a new sense of optimism, but this did not last long. The entire increase in value was lost again after profit-taking followed by a sales and profit warning from the company. After a weak second quarter and a lack of signals for a market recovery, the steel group is only expecting sales of 9.0 billion to 9.5 billion (instead of 9.5 billion to 10 billion) euros in the current year. EBITDA is also expected to fall short of the previous forecast of EUR 350 million to 550 million at EUR 300 million to 400 million. The Executive Board does not expect any noticeable market recovery in the second half of the year and therefore assumes that it will not be able to generate a profit in 2025.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

In recent days, the share price has risen again, partly because rising prices for iron ore and steel led to price gains across the entire German steel industry. The price increases were triggered by the start of construction of a mega dam in Tibet. China plans to build the world's largest hydropower plant in the region for the equivalent of USD 167 billion. However, the wikifolio traders probably don't quite trust it. In the past seven days, sales have clearly predominated, as the current trading sentiment shows. Wolfgang Schwarz has used the strong price fluctuations of the Salzgitter share for a successful short-term trade. He built up a small position for his wikifolio Responsible Investing at EUR 22.70 on Wednesday and sold the shares two days later at EUR 23.96, making a profit of almost six percent. With his portfolio, the trader aims to achieve an average annual return in the low double-digit range, while avoiding major downward and upward fluctuations. After almost eight years, the maximum drawdown is around 32% and the annualized performance is 9.7%. In total, this amounts to an increase in value of 110 percent.

European defense stocks were largely on the losing side last week. Although there is still good news in the segment, especially with regard to new major orders. However, this now seems to have been largely priced in. At the beginning of June, shares such as Rheinmetall, Hensoldt and Renk reached new all-time highs, boosted by higher defense spending by NATO countries. Since then, share prices have trended sideways to moderately downwards, partly due to a lack of new price drivers.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

Some wikifolio traders prefer to play it safe and sell the shares, at least some of them. The current trading sentiment shows a slight selling overhang in Rheinmetall over the past few days. In his wikifolio Momentum Strategy nach Minervini, Markus Klein, for example, has “realized a few gains in both Hensoldt and Rheinmetall due to the recent price weakness and reduced his holding somewhat”. In the case of Hensoldt, he initially achieved a price gain of 16 percent last Tuesday. This morning it was still 11 percent. The realized partial gains at Rheinmetall amounted to 28.5 percent and a good 26 percent respectively.

The trader selects his shares according to fundamental data and the criteria of Mark Minervini's momentum strategy. Accordingly, only stocks that are in a confirmed upward trend according to the criteria developed by Minervini are considered for investment. These criteria take into account the current share price compared to several moving averages. The wikifolio, which was launched in November 2023, has so far achieved a performance of 55%, which represents an average annual price gain of over 28%.

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