Hottest Stocks in CW 09/26

Real estate stocks have benefited in recent weeks from a sector rotation towards more defensive stocks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Real Estate sector index rose to its highest level since autumn 2024. There was also encouraging news on the macro front. The Federal Statistical Office reported 20,100 approved apartments nationwide for November, an increase of 12.5 per cent compared with the same month last year. From January to November 2025, approvals were up 11.3 per cent year-on-year at 215,500 units. Although there is still a large gap between demand and completed apartments, the trend is positive.

The recent decline in market interest rates is also playing a decisive role in this sector. Most players in the industry are heavily leveraged. Falling capital market interest rates are therefore reducing expected refinancing costs and improving the outlook for interest expenses, cash flow and debt ratios. This is particularly relevant for Vonovia, which is listed on the DAX, as the group has a large, long-term financed portfolio that needs to be refinanced regularly. In addition, the current interest rate environment is benefiting property valuations, which have been under pressure for a long time. Vonovia shares have risen by double digits since bottoming out at around €24. Last week, the share price rose by 5.1 per cent.

Several analysts have therefore recently expressed a more positive view of Vonovia again. Morgan Stanley upgraded Vonovia from ‘underweight’ to ‘equal weight’ with an unchanged price target of €30. The strategists also pointed to the current environment, in which investors are increasingly looking for business models that appear less susceptible to AI disruption. However, high debt and low returns on equity remain key factors holding back the share price. Their colleagues at DZ Bank are even more optimistic, rating Vonovia as a “buy” with a price target of €36.60. Their reasoning: the residential real estate group's business model is attractive due to highly predictable cash flows, rising rents and property valuations, and additional disproportionate growth in operating business beyond rentals. Last year, the capital market ignored all these positive aspects and reacted strongly negatively to interest rate increases.

Research firms currently estimate the fair value of the share at an average of just over €34, which would represent potential growth of 24 per cent. While the highest target price of over €55 implies a possible doubling of the share price, the downside risk (lowest target price of €23.74) appears to be quite manageable.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

Wikifolio traders also remain confident, as shown by the current trading sentiment with a recent buy surplus of 61 per cent. Mate Gotovac has Vonovia as the third-largest position in his wikifolio Value und Charttechnik. There, he focuses on undervalued stocks, which he selects based on valuation metrics such as the price-to-book ratio and the price-to-earnings ratio, as well as balance sheet data and the Leverman score. Technical indicators are also used to support his decisions. This is certainly one of the reasons why he recently bought more Vonovia shares. The model portfolio, which is at an all-time high, has achieved a performance of 90 per cent (28 per cent p.a.) since June 2023.

At NORMA Group, the news flow has recently focused primarily on the completed sale of the water management business to Advanced Drainage Systems. The Group reports a net cash inflow of around €650 million; the enterprise value of the transaction is said to be around €850 million (US$1 billion). The announced use of funds is exciting from the shareholders' point of view. The Management Board cites debt reduction, investments to strengthen the core business and share buybacks. In addition, a ‘special distribution’ is also being discussed on the market, which had recently given the share price a noticeable boost. Last week, however, there was some profit-taking, which caused the share price to fall by five per cent.

The overall positive story last year was also accompanied by several insider transactions. Most recently, Birgit Seeger, who had only taken over as CEO of the company in November, made a purchase at the end of 2025. In addition to her ‘many years of management experience,’ the supervisory board particularly praised her ‘high-calibre industry expertise’ and ‘proven success in transformation processes.’ With these qualifications, the new CEO is now expected to successfully implement the planned transformation into a focused industrial supplier with two strong business areas (general industrial applications for a wide range of uses and solutions for vehicles of all drive types).

The preliminary figures for the final quarter of 2025 were largely in line with analysts' expectations. Strategists at MWB Research particularly praised the automotive supplier's robust operating cash flow, while their colleagues at Berenberg explicitly highlighted the planned distribution to shareholders following the sale of the water management division as a potential positive trigger for the share price. Both firms recommend buying the share with a target price of €20. The fact that the fair value averages just under €16 according to analysts is partly due to Deutsche Bank setting the fair value at only €12. Even the ‘better than feared’ Q4 results could not change this.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

Trading sentiment on wikifolio.com, on the other hand, shows a clear buyer surplus for Norma, especially in the last seven days (83 per cent). Ralph Markus Sonderhüsken, for example, has been active here, significantly increasing his holdings in the wikifolio Top Hedge after previously taking partial profits in the wake of the recent price setback. Among the 35 stocks (plus a few ETFs and leveraged products), Norma is now back in fourth place. A few months after the 10th anniversary of the wikifolio, which was launched at the end of 2015, its performance stands at 281 per cent, or just under 14 per cent on an annual average. Since the certificate was issued, it has tripled in value. What is striking is the relatively low maximum loss of only 28 per cent and the very low beta of a maximum of 0.2 compared to the major stock indices. This fits perfectly with the idea of the trader who, following the example of hedge funds, wants to operate flexibly in various markets and achieve performance from profitable constellations and scenarios without investment guidelines.

At AppLovin, the recently published figures for the past financial year continued to have an impact in recent days. The company generated revenue of $5.48 billion and a net profit of $3.33 billion. It was also reported that 6.4 million shares had been repurchased and retained via the market for $2.58 billion. Nevertheless, the share price of the group, which specialises in developing mobile marketing and monetisation software for advertisers and owners of digital advertising space, initially reacted negatively. Various price target reductions caused a clear double-digit decline in the share price. According to analysts, the average price target of $786 is still well above the current price, which, despite the recovery in the previous week (+7.5 per cent), is only $419.

In their latest assessment, Jefferies strategists speak of ‘impressive’ results and a positive outlook for the current first quarter. The company aims to achieve revenue of $1.75 billion and an EBITDA margin of approximately 84 per cent. However, the reduction of the price target from $860 to just $700, despite higher revenue and profit estimates, is justified by the fact that further pressure on the share price cannot be ruled out as long as there are no clearer signs of an imminent turnaround in e-commerce. In addition, companies with gaming exposure continue to be sold, as the risk of possible AI disruption is currently being ‘applied indiscriminately’ by many market participants. Like almost all software companies, AppLovin has recently come under significant pressure in this environment. In addition, an SEC investigation is underway, centred on allegations that the company violated agreements with platform partners in order to deliver more targeted advertising.

Wikifolio traders have reacted differently to recent events. Matthias Dürnbach had already built up a larger position for his wikifolio Optunity FOXalpha in mid-February, shortly after the figures were released. ‘AppLovin has been severely punished by the market in recent months. From a fundamental perspective, however, the discount appears excessive, as the company continues to show solid growth rates in mobile advertising and app monetisation. The recent price declines therefore present an attractive entry opportunity,’ wrote the trader, who hopes to benefit from a possible recovery and revaluation in the market. AppLovin is actually the third-largest position in the portfolio, which currently consists of only seven stocks, with a weighting of just under 13 per cent. Launched in spring 2024, the wikifolio has since generated a price gain of 67 per cent (32 per cent p.a.). At its peak last autumn, growth was as high as 140 per cent before a drawdown of 41 per cent had to be absorbed. Since the beginning of February, the trend has been upwards again (up 17 per cent since the low).

However, there have also been several sales recently. Following a double low on the charts at around $360, Franz Köninger opened a short-term trade for his wikifolio Ambition Europa und USA in the first half of February. With success. Just two days after his staggered entry, he was able to close the position again with a profit of 7.9 per cent. The trader prefers to invest in European and US growth stocks that offer the highest possible return on earnings and return on capital and whose shares are in a long-term upward trend. In addition, however, further attractive opportunities are to be exploited through news and rebound trading. The trade in AppLovin Corp. is likely to fall into this category. The wikifolio, which is managed very flexibly in terms of investment ratio, currently contains 13 shares and 53 per cent cash. Since its launch at the end of 2016, it has generated a total performance of 96 per cent (7.6 per cent p.a.) with a manageable maximum loss of less than 24 per cent.

Freenet, the ‘dividend gem’, suffered a severe setback last Thursday after a four-week rally. The share price lost more than 10 per cent at its peak. Over the week as a whole, the share price ended up down 7.2 per cent, as it stabilised quickly and had initially risen at the beginning of the week. The correction was triggered by a recent analyst study.

UBS downgraded the stock from ‘neutral’ to “sell” with an unchanged price target of €28.50. Analysts cited ‘weaker trends in both the mobile communications and television businesses’ as the reason for this, which are likely to put pressure on expectations in the short term. In addition, Freenet could possibly be more affected than the industry as a whole by threats posed by Artificial Intelligence. This is likely to have been the main reason for the crash. Many other analysts have not yet commented on this so decisively. The summary shows an average price target of €32.64, which would leave the share price with some room for upward movement.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

Nevertheless, several wikifolio traders have recently played it safe and taken their profits, some of which had accumulated considerably. After all, the share price had risen by more than 30 per cent since the beginning of November. Stefan Uhl managed to catch a relatively good price (€31.22) on Thursday, securing a profit of 9.4 per cent for his very popular wikifolio ForInc TrendInvest. The trader had repeatedly changed the number of shares held in recent months, but had been consistently invested since October.

In the portfolio, which currently consists of 19 stocks, the trader aims to trade on ‘company forecast upgrades’. Since December 2015, this approach has enabled him to achieve an annual increase in value of 23.5 per cent. In total, the wikifolio has thus achieved a price gain of 760 per cent. The wikifolio certificate issued later even shows a performance of 933 per cent. The trader performed impressively well, especially until the end of 2021, before the price almost halved in the wake of the first major drawdown. However, new record highs have since been reached. Successful trades such as those with Freenet contributed to this, even if the recent price slide is likely to have annoyed the trader.

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