Hottest Stocks in CW 48/25

The freelancer platform Upwork operates the world's largest job market, bringing companies together with independent talent. 800,000 corporate customers with 18 million freelancers ensure plenty of traffic, so that both sides get their money's worth. The management board is strongly committed to the positive effects of artificial intelligence and uses the vast amount of available data as a basis for this. The bottom line is that this should significantly increase profitability. Management revealed the specific direction of travel at the most recent investor day:

In the coming fiscal year, Upwork aims to increase its revenues by 6 to 8 percent. In the following two years, average annual revenue growth is then expected to rise to 13 to 15 percent, with adjusted EBITDA averaging around 20 percent. The so-called “take rate” (commission share) is to be increased from around 20 percent recently to around 23 percent by 2028. And according to the management board, no economic recovery is necessary to achieve this.

Several analysts have subsequently raised their earnings estimates for the company and also the target price for the share. It is currently trading just below the $18 mark, having been floated on the stock market around seven years ago at a price of $15. The average price target is currently just under $20, which would leave room for a further 11 percent upside. The highest price target is even $28.35, which is almost 60 percent above the current price. However, the most pessimistic analyst sees the fair value of the company at only $15.15.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

The majority of wikifolio traders have been on the buy side for Upwork for some time, as the current trading sentiment shows. In recent days, the buying surplus has increased significantly once again. Software expert Stefan Waldhauser has had the stock on his watch list for a long time (“sometimes higher, sometimes lower”) and has recently finally invested in it via his wikifolio High-Tech Stock Picking. The trader describes Upwork as a “fairly valued platform company with real network effects, a clear product vision, and rising cash flows.” In addition to its “balance sheet strength,” he also praises the company's “astonishing increase in efficiency.” In his latest analysis, Waldhauser points out that the share price is currently only slightly above its IPO level, “even though revenue has increased fourfold and the business, which was highly loss-making at the time, now generates cash flow margins of over 20 percent.” In his portfolio (+213 percent since June 2016), the stock is the fifth-largest holding of the 17 stocks in the portfolio, accounting for around six percent of the portfolio.

At the beginning of October, the world of crypto enthusiasts was still in perfect order. Bitcoin had just risen to a new all-time high of over $126,000, and investment products for digital assets were experiencing unprecedented demand. Bitcoin saw record inflows of $3.55 billion within a week. Against this backdrop, crypto ETP issuer 21Shares was prompted to say that Bitcoin had evolved from a speculative investment to a strategic allocation in diversified portfolios and appeared well positioned to target a price of $140,000 to $150,000 by the end of the year after a technical counter-movement.

The counter-movement did indeed occur and continues to this day. At its low point last week, the world's largest cryptocurrency slipped to just over $80,000, a decline of more than 35 percent. This correction was and continues to be associated with strong outflows from the above-mentioned crypto products. The shares of companies specializing in the purchase of bitcoins, among other things, have been hit even harder. The share price of Strategy Incorporated (formerly Microstrategy) fell by 13 percent last week. The stock has been in decline since mid-July. Since then, it has lost over 60 percent of its market value. Current price: $170.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

The majority of wikifolio traders also view the historically atypical decline in the price of Bitcoin as an opportunity to buy Strategy Incorporated shares. A look at trading sentiment shows a clear buyer surplus for the US stock. On Friday, Martin Werner Richter was pleased to report, with reference to the aforementioned Bernstein analysis, that the stock is “now one of our largest positions.” In his wikifolio NEW 25 STANDARD INVEST, Strategy Incorporated is indeed the top holding, accounting for almost 15 percent of the portfolio. On Thursday, the trader significantly increased his holdings once again. However, book losses currently total almost 40 percent. Nevertheless, the wikifolio has achieved a more than remarkable performance of 235 percent after just 2.5 years. This represents an average annual price increase of over 60 percent.

Exact Sciences shares closed last week with a gain of more than 50 percent. Such price movements are rare even in the current environment and are often driven by takeover bids. This is also the case for the company, which is active in the field of early cancer detection and diagnostics. On Thursday, the American medical technology group Abbott Laboratories announced that it had entered into a binding agreement to acquire Exact Sciences. The deal is worth around $21 billion, which corresponds to $105 per Exact Sciences share. The final completion of the acquisition is expected in the second quarter of next year.

The wikifolio traders who invested in the US stock are naturally delighted with the offer and the jump in the share price. The stock had already nearly doubled since its low in April. In the long term, however, the outlook is not quite so rosy. The stock will never again reach the all-time high of just under $160 marked at the beginning of 2021, and the level of the takeover offer had already been reached in mid-2023. Shareholders who bought in at that time will at least get off lightly.

wikifolio trader Jörk Wegener has actively traded Exact Sciences shares several times in recent years in his wikifolio Trendaktienwerte weltweit, achieving mixed results. However, his most recent entry in September at €47.73 has now proven to be a lucky move. After last week's price surge, the second-largest position in the portfolio shows a book profit of 82 percent. The trader prefers trend trading on the stock market because he assumes “that an existing trend is significantly more likely to continue than to break.” With this approach, he has been able to increase the value of the wikifolio by 172 percent since the beginning of 2015. This means that the price has risen by an average of just under 10 percent per year.

In the wikifolio Gesundheit geht vor ! managed by Thomas Preis, Exact Sciences shares are up 20 percent. The trader bought in at €72.52 two and a half years ago and has held on to the shares despite sharp declines. His patience has been rewarded. With an eye on an aging society, Preis is focusing specifically on shares in healthcare companies. He prefers companies “that have built up multiple pillars of business over many years and operate globally.” His aim is to “accompany the sector calmly, without acting hectically.” This approach has now paid off with Exact Sciences. The loss-maker has turned a profit. The model portfolio, which was opened at the beginning of 2013, has achieved an average annual performance of just under 11 percent, which has led to a total increase in value of 273 percent to date.

With a 77 percent increase in value this year, Deutsche Bank shares are among the top performers on the German stock market. The balance sheet is also impressive over a longer period. Over the past three years, share price gains have totaled a remarkable 188 percent. Only its competitor Commerzbank and the high-flyers Heidelberg Materials, Siemens Energy, and Rheinmetall have performed better in the DAX. Since its low in spring 2020, Deutsche Bank's share price has increased almost sevenfold. Hardly anyone would have expected that at the time.

At the financial group's Capital Markets Day last week, the Management Board specified its medium-term targets for the period up to 2028. According to these targets, revenues are to be increased by an average of more than five percent per year and, despite investments in technology and digitalization, cost savings of around two billion euros are to be achieved. At least 60 percent of the profits generated will be distributed to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks.

Although the communicated targets are slightly above consensus estimates, most analysts appear relatively unimpressed. Overall, the consensus price target has risen only slightly in recent days. Research firms currently estimate the fair value of the share at €32.64. Following the recent profit-taking, Deutsche Bank would thus once again have a price potential of just under double digits. The highest price target is €36.75, the lowest €24.75. This puts the share almost exactly in the middle of the entire range.

TRADING-SENTIMENT

Several wikifolio traders have been trading according to the tried-and-tested motto “sell on good news” in recent days. Deutsche Bank's current trading sentiment shows a slight surplus of sales. Last Tuesday, Gerald Asamer sold his entire remaining holdings in Deutsche Bank shares in his wikifolio Smart and Strong, realizing a profit of just over five percent. After entering the market at the end of July, he had already taken his first profits in October. The trader wants to invest in companies that, in his view, “have a convincing strategic orientation and attractive prospects.” He has been pursuing this strategy in the wikifolio for a good two years and has since generated a price increase of almost 40 percent.

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