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This Folio represents all major JUNIOR Lithium and Cobalt Miners WITH MAXIMUM DIVERSIFICATION for Electric Vehicles (EVs) + Storage reaching their Golden Age within Y2020-2025. This includes also Battery-Recycling!
Stocks are held long-term at least until 2020.
China-Stock is excluded.

EVs sales growing at about 30-50%pa. 2015 growth was 40%.
Electric car global sales are currently 0,85% market share, and I expect this to grow to around 5% market share by end 2020. That equates to an increase from around 774.000 sales in 2016 to around 4,5m sales globally in the year 2020.
If we assume the average electric car will have a 50kWh battery then each car will require about 40kgs of lithium. So by 2020 4,5m cars will require 180.000 tonnes of Li-carbonate. Adding to this will be lithium demand from E-Buses, E-Bikes, and E-Trucks. In 2016 China demand for electric buses was 115.000 units.

Energy storage sales expected to grow at 50%+ pa between 2016-2020.
In 2016 E-Storage installations grew 100% in the US. Li-ion batteries represented at least 97% of all E-Storage capacity deployed in 2016. China plans to raise its power storage capacity by ten-fold to 14,5 gigawatts by 2020 (from 2016 levels).
Citigroup forecast that the global E-Storage market will be greater than $400 billion by 2030 from around 130m in 2015, or a growth of a staggering 3.077 fold in just 15 years. These figures are excluding car batteries. E-Storage has the potential to overtake lithium demand for EVs.

Cobalt demand will also be boosted moving strongly towards EVs. India is aiming for 100% of all new car sales to be EVs by 2030. Added to the above is that China recently approved Ni-manganese-cobalt (NMC) Li-ion battery chemistry for EV subsidies. This will lead to a burst of cobalt demand from China.

I expect this Folio to have a total return of 1.000% by Y2020 and 4.000-7.000% by Y2025-2030. You are welcome to share the profit!

If Fusion Energy is invented before 2030, this Folio is screwed! mehr anzeigen
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Michael Weiser
Mitglied seit 24.10.2017

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