Systematische Trendfolge

Systematic trend monitoring is more a craft than an art. Not own opinions, expectations, hopes or desires are traded, but real facts resulting from market price developments. The use of a disciplined and time-tested trend monitoring strategy leads to returns that are substantially higher than long-only investments. I consider naming target returns in trend monitoring systems as dubious, since market conditions determine a large proportion of the performance opportunities. Trend monitoring models are no replacement for time deposits and no “safe” investment for widows, orphans and grandchildren. There are often drawdowns at the beginning and end of trends because the risk of false signals increases at these points. The same applies to phases without a trend. The aim is to limit losses to 5% of the portfolio value. For years, this trend monitoring strategy has complemented a long-only portfolio that is diversified according to asset classes as a hedging and leverage strategy. This wikifolio primarily addresses stock markets via index ETFs on the long and short side and only in special situations also complementary positions in interest rate or commodity ETFs. The trend monitoring model is long-term oriented and has many asset classes with hit rates aboce 60%. The average holding period of the positions is between two and four weeks depending on the market situation. I have invested my own money in this wikifolio.